What is the sargassum layer actually tracking, and which way does it move?
What it measures: the Alternate Floating Algae Index (AFAI), a satellite
method (Hu et al., 2015) that detects sargassum's distinct light signature against open
water, developed by the University of South Florida. It's shown here as a 7-day cumulative
composite rather than a single day's pass, since daily satellite coverage has real gaps
from cloud cover and sun glint that the cumulative version smooths over.
Resolution: the underlying satellite data (MODIS/VIIRS) resolves to about
1.5-2 km per pixel -- at Anguilla's scale, that's genuinely coarse, which is why the layer
looks blocky up close. This is a real limit of the current public satellite product, not
a display setting -- USF/NOAA are actively developing higher-resolution regional products
(currently piloted for Puerto Rico/USVI) that combine finer imagery with ocean circulation
models to forecast movement days in advance; that capability isn't yet available for
Anguilla specifically.
Which way it's heading: there's no precise per-location trajectory forecast
publicly available for this area yet. In general, sargassum in this part of the Caribbean is
carried westward by the Caribbean Current, with local wind and eddies causing real
day-to-day variation -- so "generally moving west, unpredictably" is the honest general
answer, not a specific heading.
Where the actual forecast comes from: USF's Optical Oceanography Lab
publishes a real monthly bulletin with expert regional outlooks (linked above) -- that's
the closest thing to a genuine "forecast" that currently exists for this phenomenon; a
true 10-day forecast doesn't yet exist publicly for this specific area.
Weather & air quality: live from Open-Meteo. Sargassum coverage: NOAA/AOML's
satellite-derived 7-day index (University of South Florida method), shown by
default since conditions change often. Business locations: OpenStreetMap
community data. Toggle layers (top-right of the map) for water depth and
different business categories. Tap any dot for details.